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SYSTEMATIC · RULES-BASED · WEEKLY
A disciplined signal for the ups—and the downs.
TrendShield is a rules-based weekly signal for leveraged ETFs — TQQQ and BITU. It leans in when the trend is healthy, plays defense when it weakens, and steps aside when it breaks. No predictions. No black box.
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WEEKLY SIGNAL — THREE STATES
LIVE
LONG
Trend is healthy — fully invested in the leveraged position.
FULLY INVESTED
HEDGE
Trend is weakening — a defensive overlay reduces exposure.
REDUCE RISK
ONE RULEBOOK
EVERY WEEK
THE METHOD
One rulebook. Every kind of market.
Leveraged ETFs reward you in strong trends and punish you in choppy or falling ones. The job is to be exposed during the good stretches and protected during the bad ones — decided by rules, not emotion.
01
Trend confirmation
Price structure and volatility regime must align before leverage is considered.
02
Exposure discipline
Position size reflects the current quality of the signal, never conviction alone.
03
Built-in defense
Risk-off conditions are explicit, helping reduce exposure when the trend breaks.
DAILY WORKFLOW
From market conditions to one clear weekly signal.
See which state you are in, what the system is watching, and where the defense threshold sits—in plain language.
01
Read the regime
Trend and volatility define whether risk is even on the table.
02
Confirm the signal
Breadth and momentum filters must agree before exposure is added.
03
Set the defense
The exit and reduction rules are visible before capital is committed.
THE NUMBERS — BACKTESTED
The good, and the risk.
TQQQ backtested across roughly six years of market history, including the 2022 bear market. Backtest any time horizon up to 20 years.
GROWTH (IN TESTING)
$10k → ~$474k
Strong compounding in the tested period, driven by staying invested through healthy trends and protecting capital in bad ones.
WORST DRAWDOWN
−34%
The worst stretch fell about a third before recovering—with defensive rules working. You have to be able to hold through that.
Hypothetical, backtested results—not money actually earned. Backtests benefit from hindsight; real results may be worse. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Leveraged ETFs are higher-risk. Evaluate deliberately.
A weekly framework that keeps the plan visible when markets get noisy.
A weekly signal, ready when you are.
